A POSITIVE WORD FROM SCOTT RASMUSSEN – AT 1:19 P.M. ET:   We're not high on "prediction" stories here, but occasionally one comes along that makes sense.  Scott Rasmussen, master pollster and analyst, is predicting that Republicans will pick up seats in November's midterm elections.  From RealClearPolitics.com: 

Now, with the elections just six months away, it seems that Republican are more likely to gain seats in the Senate rather than lose control.

Sure, it's still possible that the Dems could pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada. But, such an outcome is far from a sure thing as both races are now toss-ups.

And, even if Schumer's party wins both of those races, the chances of successfully defending all of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents is increasingly in doubt. The Dems are playing defense hoping to hang on to five Senate seats in states that President Trump won by double digits -- West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. On top of that, Florida Governor Rick Scott has entered the fray to challenge Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in a toss-up state. Early indications are that Scott has all the energy and momentum in the race.

The numbers clearly favor the GOP. If, for example, the Democrats pick up BOTH toss-up races in Arizona and Nevada, the Republicans need to win just one of the other six competitive races to keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie. With Vice President Mike Pence empowered to cast the deciding vote, the GOP would remain in control.

At this moment in time, however, it seems like the Republicans should expect to do much better than a mere 50-50 tie in the Senate. There is certainly a chance they could win at least one of the toss-up Senate races in either Arizona or Nevada (especially if Martha McSally wins the Republican nomination in Arizona).

COMMENT:  Rasmussen gives real analysis, not speculation, but we must caution that the election is five months away.  President Trump's poll numbers will affect the result.  They are rising slightly right now, but that could change.

There are solid reasons to be optimistic, but Republicans must run as if they're 20 points behind. 

June 3, 2018